As we look toward 2026, long-term investors face a landscape of both record market returns and historic valuations. While the streak of double-digit returns has bolstered portfolios, nearing dot-com era valuation peaks suggests a need for discipline and a focus on corporate fundamentals. From the transformative role of AI to the upcoming transition in Federal Reserve leadership, understanding these key themes is essential for maintaining a balanced strategy in the year ahead.

As Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chair nears its end in May 2026, the White House has a pivotal opportunity to reshape the central bank’s leadership. While headlines focus on the next rate decision, the real debate lies in the Fed's evolving role and its independence. This commentary explores the potential for new leadership, the path of interest rates, and why long-term economic trends—rather than individual policy decisions—remain the most critical factor for investor success.